Brace yourself for wave upon wave of … political polls. The latest show President Trump lagging presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, as usual. But stop. Let us do what no one does – look BEHIND these polls, understand the process and bias in polling.
Take two recent polls, by NPR/PBS/Marist (NPR) and ABC/Washington Post (ABC). Both report new anti-Trump findings. Take a moment and unpack them.
MSN.com – like may non-technical, left-leaning sites – summarizes both. A stinging line punctuates a leading paragraph. Says MSN, NPR’s poll “has Biden beating Trump 60 percent to 35 percent among suburban voters.” ABC’s poll “is the latest to show former Vice President Joe Biden on a roll … up by a 52 percent to 43 percent margin among suburban voters …”
Okay, so narrative is set – “Biden beating Trump,” “Biden on a roll,” stark numbers. Most readers go no further, but MSN inserts links to suggest you can – so let us do it. See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-polls-show-joe-biden-is-winning-suburbanites-by-a-historic-margin/ar-BB16Vu0y.
Go to links. What you see is “methodology,” on NPR’s poll some 61 categories defining 1,640 interviewees. Who is going to study 61 categories? Not many – but we are. Here is what you learn.
On process, the survey was done in English and Spanish (no word how many of each), demographic data lags to 2017, interviews were not all “registered voters,” sample size of small groups were unreported, cell phones for business were not accepted, and no response rate is listed. That is, no report of how many calls resulted in no contact, or “no thank you, not interested in NPR’s survey.”
Any bias here? What if the survey was just English – our official language? How were nationalized Americans distinguished from illegals? What if demographics were current? Doesn’t old data change findings? Which subgroups were “too small to report?” What if they tipped for Trump?
What effect did omitting “business cell phones” have on findings? What if owners of the nation’s 30.2 million small businesses have one cell for both business and personal use? After all, 50 percent of small businesses operate from “home.” What if these small businesses are pro-Trump entrepreneurs?
Surprise: They are. Another survey reports “President Trump’s approval rating among small business owners hit an all-time high of 64 percent” in 2020. If cells used by business owners are omitted, does that affect results? See: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/trumps-approval-rating-among-small-biz-owners-hits-64percent-survey-shows.html#:~:text=Small%20business%20owners%20are%20a%20consistent%20source%20of,%E2%80%9CPart%20of%20this%20is%20just%20partisanship%2C%E2%80%9D%20Wronski%20said.
Dig deeper. In the NPR sample, 38 percent are Democrats, only 31 percent Republicans, with 29 percent Independents. Does that overrepresent Democrats v. Republicans, and Independents v. both? What effect does that have on accuracy?
Look closer. Among Democrats in NPR’s survey, one third more are women than men. Do Democrat men favor Trump more than Democrat women? Maybe. Slice the pie differently. In NPR’s survey, 52 percent are women, 48 percent men. Does that affect findings?
How about the fact that older voters – who tend to be more conservative – vote more often? How does NPR account for that? Pew Research reported in 2020, while “older voters accounted for 43 percent of eligible voters, they cast 49 percent of ballots.” See: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/. Moreover, 54 percent of older Americans approve of Trump, compared to 30 percent of youngest voters. See: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/.
With respect to age, only 26 percent of NPR’s respondents were aged 45 to 59. This may be a major flaw, as 35 percent of voters in 2016 were over 50, and NPR’s survey appears to wholly omit voters over 59. This is particularly meaningful, as 25 percent of all voters in 2016 were over 65.
Another unreported fact should trigger critical thinking – especially on this NPR survey. The June 26th NPR survey says Trump’s approval fell from 43 percent in March 2020 to 40 percent in June 2020. But Trump’s overall approval rating was 37 percent in March 2017 – five months after winning election.
Pivot to ABC’s latest survey, more bias. The media does not expect you to ask, but let us ask. ABC’s headline – to which MSN links: “Pandemic Surge Damages Trump, Boosting Biden’s White House Bid.” But is that what ABC’s data really says?
To get methodology and qualifiers, you must search. Stressing credibility, they note: “We do accept some probability-based surveys that do not meet our own methodological standards … recommend cautious use of such data.” Then on shorter survey methodology, the link just pops an error message.
We learn 65 percent of interviews were cell phones, 35 percent landlines. Taking that as gospel, demographic data show landlines are held by older Americans, cells held by younger Americans. Does a 2:1 bias for cells tip results? Maybe. See, e.g., https://nypost.com/2017/05/04/why-nearly-46-percent-of-household-still-have-landlines/.
How about this: ABC uses a “cleaning process” that “excludes respondents who have home-based business-listed phones.” Recall more than 50 percent of small businesses operate from “home,” and 64 percent favored Trump. Does omitting such lines affect survey results? Maybe.
Other biases are unaccounted – or just undercounted. The ABC poll omits phones in “institutional” settings, but what of senior living communities? Most are conservative – and residents vote. Numbers are not small. In fact, the nation has thousands of apparently undercounted senior living communities. See, e.g. https://www.statista.com/statistics/895322/senior-housing-communities-usa-by-region/.
Last, like other surveys, this one is ambiguous on “response rate” – that is, number of failed contacts, and calls ending in “no, thank you, click.” Despite contrary arguments, response rates matter. For several years, telephone survey response rates have been falling. They now stand at a shocking – six percent. See: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/.
What does that mean? Most people just do not answer. If they answer, they hang up. Those who talk – when told NPR or ABC is calling – might have a motive. So, net-net do not put great faith in polls.
Even when luminaries at NPR, ABC, and elsewhere say they have 2020 figured out – they probably do not. They have results they want, based on questions, demographics, and methods supporting the narrative – and a nice, juicy headline.
So, brace yourself for wave on wave … of polls. But do not put great stock in them. The reservations often swallow their findings. Only one poll really counts. You know it – November 3, 2020.
Just caught some of the eulogy for John Lewis on the tube today. President Clinton, Bush, and Obama. Honest Praise for a great man who fought against the injustice faced by blacks. Knowing that he was dying wrote an essay. A line from his essay, “Let them say that it was your generation who laid down the heavy burdens of hate”. A added quote, Together we can redeem the soul of our nation. We as a nation are ready to do that. There are some small segments of the population that may never be ready for that, too small a number to stop us. Listen carefully to Obama’s comments from his eulogy. Are these comments to bring us together or keep the dying embers of division alive.
If the polls mentioned in the article showed Trump slipping against Biden because of the corona virus response, I wonder if the poll asked if respondents knew FIVE vaccines were in development? Likewise, if respondents knew about the development of treatments for those with COVID-19 and paid for by the federal government. The Fox poll from two weeks ago didn’t ask if respondents knew about vaccines being developed, even though Trumps poor polling against Biden was corona virus related. The talking-heads on Fox’s Special Report didn’t mention vaccine development when discussing poll results.
They obviously didn’t learn anything from 2016 when their polls showed Hillary winning by a wide margin. Duh….
Polls mean nothing. I don’t answer them. I don’t answer my phone if I don’t recognize the number. I know a great many people who feel the same way. And, fear may lead to speaking out for Biden but voting for Trump. I live where it’s safe to support Trump and most do but I’m afraid when I get out of this area to show any type of support for Trump – fear for my own safety and that of any property I may own. Polls mean nothing!
Become a Counter-Revolutionary! Demand Authority ENFORCE OUR LAWS!! Stand-up for America!! Remove Every Democrat!!!!!
Democrats were the Slave Owners and ran the Slave Trade. They are trying to tear-down their own monuments to cover-up their SINS!!!!!
The Democrats are Communists!! The RINO’s are also Communists!! The Republican Party as a hole is useless!! We need a new Political Party – The Freedom Party founded from FreedomWorks.org!! Stand-up for America!! Make the TRUMP Movement grow – Freedom NOW!!!!!
These so called “polls”that show Joe Biden leading must have been conducted in mental institutions.
Christians voting plus God = overwhelming majority!
Your email subject line asks what is my confidence level in domestic travel. I said I would not hesitate to travel by air or land. However, any travel would need to be something I must do. I would not just jump on a plane and travel for pleasure.
Nor would I travel by car unless it was a necessity.
I know there are bad people in our country and we keep hearing about this political football, Covid-19. But I have confidence we will get past all this nonsense and get our lives back again.
In another article, nevertrumper Senator Mitt Romney candidly observed that youngsters, who are more leftist and tech savvy to respond to online polls and ready to interact on cellphones with pollsters, than conservative seniors,are less likely to actually vote. And in 2016 the editor of the New York times stated that it is so essential to defeat, then remove Trump from office after his victory, that journalistic standards of impartiality and truthful fact finding should be discarded to achieve that end of influencing rather than informing the readers. Polling organizations are part of the establishment legacy mainstream media, therefore are on that same mission. About 85% are registered Democrats. ‘Down with you Deplorables’, “Shut up Silent Majority”. We’ll see about that on November 3rd.
I have never had any confidence in polls. I vote the way my conscience tells me, not what someone else tries to get me to do. I still remember how Truman was way behind in those “so-called” polls and won the presidency. (I didn’t vote for him, but greatly admired his honesty and taking responsibility for all that he did, instead of blaming someone else).
Polls do not and will never vote!
They were so wrong in 2016 and in the UK they were WAY wrong with Brexit and the last election, Johnson won in a landslide. Largest margin since Thatcher won. The sampling is usually 1,000 or less. Seriously?
Polls can be manipulated and they are continually.
Just saying.
A little cheating here….A little cheating there! These polls are taken by media with an agenda – a leftist agenda! I don’t trust them! Get out and vote!
I think there a lot of ‘old time’ Dems will vote for President Trump but will never admit it to their left wing socialist Marxist friends. The secret voters?
I believe most people getting calls from pollsters don’t answer. Also the way questions are posed leave no room for clarification or explanation. In other words question format can be biased from the get-go. I don’t believe the polls, I don’t participate in the polls, but one thing for sure – I vote.
The silent majority will show up in force for OUR PRESIDENT and for OUR COUNTRY
I’m always amused when a) the sample is under 1000 people and b) the headline movement is a 2% shift and the accuracy is
+/- 5%! How is it possible to reach any conclusion from such faulty data?
I would love to see the polls show that Biden is going to win by a landslide. So the Democrats do not even need to go and vote. Just stay at home not need to worry. they have won already. Good job NPR, CNN, MSNBC; the are really doing another Hillary has won repeat.
The liberal media must think we’re all imbeciles and that we have a very short memory. They were positive Trump would lose in 2016.
Trump started Corona task force briefings again this week & sort of mentioned to wear masks. Then the next day at Legend meeting inside WH, only a few people wore masks. They were sitting side by side & many police and families of family lost due to violence. This was not a good example of masks for the rest of US. Be a leader !!!
I wish more people paid less attention to polls–such as people who, if they vote, don’t really follow politics and politicians but, remembers, oh, the “polls” say more people support this politician than that–and vote accordingly. Some years ago I watched as a friend answered a survey relating to change policies relating to customers. I knew what the hoped for outcome was, and listened as questions were worded in such a way the pollee thought she was answering one way, but was answering the way the pollster wanted. I then asked the friend, so, you want A, B, C as a consumer? No, she wanted C, D, E–and was upset when I told her–nope, you answered the other way unfortunately, she fell into the pollsters’ trap. This article is spot on regarding the deviousness in doing the polls, and reporting the results.
Hillary Clinton was whooping Trump in 2016 according to the polls….I laughed so hard at the fake nazi democratically owned supposed news(?) kept trying to figure out how she could win the election toward the end. I don’t pay much attention to the polls because they are always biased if the left winged fake news medias have anything to do with them. All I know is when Trump has a campaign visit, there are virtually thousands of people waiting to hear him. Oh yeah, you can be sure that on November 4th, the COVID19 virus will disappear from the news medias reports 24/7/365 panic and fear propoganda.
Also polls using registered voters can show less accurate results copared to likely voters.
Well, don’t these poll numbers sound FAMILIAR. If my memory is correct–in 2016 Hillary had a 95% chance of becoming POTUS!! As Gomer Pyle would say–“Surprise,Surprise”. I will guarantee I could get a poll showing Trump tearing Biden a new one. Time and the direction of God Almighty will not be deterred. As with these polls–When all is said and done– very little will be done and a great deal will be said.
I don’t believe any of the main stream media polls. Anyone can play with numbers to fit their agenda. Their polls and news are the same LIES!
MOST polls are a joke (main stream), look at how they went in 2016. Most folks with a brain don’t want to even get involved. Just wait for Nov 3rd! My only fear is that the liberals are really changing things and I’m afraid that they will make sure Biden doesn’t debate Trump and they will figure out a way or ways to cheat on Nov 3rd. If Biden does debate Trump look for Joe to get the questions in advance and softball type questions. Trump will get tough questions, with attitude and made to look as bad as possible.
The dark side is famous for election fraud, for producing boxes of ballots that had been either misplaced or recovered from storage closets or garbage bins.
More recently, these fugitives from the light have expanded their criminal enterprise to include voter fraud, rounding up “illegal alien voters” and enlisting them to fill the shoes of “non-voting registered citizens,” even to fill multiple pairs of shoes in multiple precincts.
These denizens of the deepest darkness even have their own self-directed, detached operatives, such as the Black Panthers in Philadelphia brandishing a billy club to suppress Hillary voters.
As Saul Alinsky wrote, “Accuse your enemy of what you are doing.” The media-driven hysteria of 2018, about Russian hacking into voting machines to inflate Republican tallies, bodes ill for the 2020 elections, if Chinese hackers can navigate the OEM back doors in voting machines built in Soros-owned companies.
DNC Media, the Demorats and all their lap dogs…do their best everyday to convince the low information voter…President Trump is no good.. even though all these left-wing, nut-jobs are hanging off the cliff…. ALL making major bucks to get people to believe their Lies about Polls and Votes… The demo-dogs and their media all tell the same Lies … They better watch out people are Fed UP… Big Red Trump Train is COMMING… 2020… Can’t wait to see them pulling their hair out, Crying in their beer…
All I know is that not one, single poll had Trump winning in 2016, yet he did. The other thing is: Not once in my entire 64 years — excluding those years I was not old enough to vote — have I ever been polled, other than on an online survey site of which I frequent, which is anonymous. Although the two aforementioned facts are good to know, we must never, ever succumb to overconfidence nor underestimate our enemy by thinking we do not have to vote. Voting is incredibly important this year, especially knowing the depths to which the other side will stoop to win, i.e., fraud.
Nothing in this report surprises me. Thank you for reporting the truth!
Polls are mostly conducted by the same Progressives that deceive US with alleged news stories. People are afraid to state they will vote for Trump for fear of violent retaliation from Progressives. Pray Progressives can be kept from stealing the election.
Vote as though your country depends on it! Trust me, you won’t like it if Biden wins!
Thank you for giving us this information, which in our hearts, we already believe is happening. Now..I’m going to post this link on some FB websites… hope they don’t block it or call it false information, which they are doing.
Polls are only a representation of the view point of the people asking the question and of the people who they decide to ask! As such, they are pure rubbish. The 2016 election polls showed all of America just how valid those polls were. Thank God! We have known for the past several presidential elections how invalid and totally useless these polls actually are. Don’t give any of them any credibility. Yes, I emphatically agree that the only meaningful number is the final one on November 3rd!
The reason polls are important is simply because many voters want to vote for the “winner”. Those persons are extremely few in number. But in a close election , if one side is cast as the “winner” those voters will vote for that person and could toss the election . Also, polls alert the voters that they must vote if their candidate is to win . If a voter sees his/her candidate slipping , then such voter will ramp up his/her determination to vote . I for one , am horrified by the notion that Biden is leading Trump. So, you can bet your life on the fact that i will be out there voting for my candidate ( Mr. Trump ) . To say that i am disappointed in the Democrats is an understatement. I am horrified by the Democrat party from top to bottom. It seems that everything they do or stand for is about destruction , whether its abortion, or “fundamental change” , or defund the police , etc. Democrats don’t appear to stand for anything positive or constructive. They’re always anti this or anti that. They appear to me to be anti-America.
Most people answering polls think they can only answer using the choices given, even if their opinion is not included. The choices given are usually skewed to line up with the desires of the pollsters rather than get the real opinions of he polled. In reality, polls are nearly useless as a determination of future events.
If we learned anything from 2016, we cannot believe in polls. They are usually very biased and totally wrong.
As usual the left is bonkers!! They are running scar. Go Trump Go!!
Excellent, detailed and factual article. Thank you!
Elections always to bring to light the best of fictional facts.
Good story. Even Fox News this morning stated that over 60% of voters either won’t respond or will say Biden to avoid argument or worse. TRUMP WINS, provided YOU get out and vote AND encourage others to KEEP OUR COUNTRY FREE.
During my graduate MBA program, we were required to take a course in Operations Research. One of the significant components of that course concerned structuring of surveys (in politics, they call them polls) and how easy it was to make significant structural errors in the construction and wording of a survey, resulting in skewing and/or invalidation of results. This article points out many of the same pitfalls we studied in that course. The short answer is that most of these polls are significantly deficient in their construction, their sampling techniques and ultimately in the statistical interpretation of their so-called results.
In effect, most of these political polls are self-serving instruments for the group who set up the survey and almost always can be counted on to confirm and/or reinforced their current ideology and preconceived notions. As a case in point, take the 2016 election where Hillary was anointed as the “hands-down” winner over Trump during the campaign. Gee whiz, folks! All those pre-election polls were wrong, and often wrong to a significant degree. Best advice regarding the current Demshevik polls – ignore them all as essentially worthless. The vote on November 3rd is the only “poll” that counts and will be the ONLY one that will offer 100% objective evidence regarding what America thinks on the issues.
I think that whoever did this had the facts twisted.I was once an independent voter,but after the”king in his own mind nobamba”was elected and he and they work on destroying AMERICA i decided that i would become an anti never ever democrat basher.
When you have @ half of America leaning toward illegal immigration, defunding Police, mass entitlements across the board; our country is on the very edge of life or death… and the cancer is all from within. We are to blame. We never thought this nightmare could actually occur. My Mother used to say, “the way you make your bed, is the way you’ll sleep on it.” We may have come to the point of either letting our country as we know it, fade away or civil revolution to take our beloved country back.
Just another reason to not trust poll ratings. They do the same thing with ratings for shows, I laugh at those Rotten Tomatoes ratings which are done by bot voting. Same thing here. A thinking person doesn’t vote by going for someone based solely on how popular their ratings are on social media by the number of “followers “ but based on how well they actually listen to their constituents. If they ignore you because you have an alternative viewpoint then you know that they are representing everyone
I think it’s funny that every poll that I can think of since the Clinton administration on has been wrong. Yet people keep putting their faith into them as if they were gospel. My all time favorite poll was the evening of this last election, where they were saying Hillary was something like eight or nine percentage points above Trump, and was projected to win it all…when it was all said and done, the look of WHAT HAPPENED on all the Dem’s faces were priceless. I can’t wait to see it again…Trump 2020!!!
If you put a Biden sign in front of your house what do you expect to happen.? Nothing. If you put a Trump sign outside of your house what do you expect to happen? BLM, ANTIFA will burn your house down. THIS is the silent poll. In November they can NOT burn your ballot.
I keep wondering who’s going to replace Biden as the actual candidate, presumably at such a late date in the process that effective vetting will be as difficult as possible.
I asked a resident in a nursing home if he voted and he told me no, nobody ever asked him if he wanted to, are they harvesting votes in nursing homes? There are thousands of nursing homes each with hundreds of residents, this is a problem.