AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman
There have been some recent op-eds suggesting that the national midterm elections, now only 7 months away, will not be a red tsunami in U.S. House elections as some have predicted. The arguments fall into two general categories. First, there are those pundits who calculate that the GOP has already picked up several competitive seats in 2020, and thus is limited in the number of pick-ups it can hope for in 2022. They contend that predictors of GOP gains of more than 25-30 seats are way too optimistic. The second group are mostly Republican strategists who do not necessarily believe in a lesser number of gains, but who want to lower public expectations so that the actual results cannot be portrayed as a disappointment.
Any prediction of results about 200 days before November is, of course, speculative, and there is no guarantee that a red wave is certain. But the current political environment, if it persists, surely will not bring good news for Democrats when the votes are tallied after election day.
Those who are skeptical about a GOP House landslide (net Republican gains of 35 seats or more) have a logical mathematical argument; i.e., it would take massive voter shifts in many districts currently represented by Democrats to defeat the incumbents.
Many observers also believe that President Biden’s current very low poll numbers will soon rise, and that he and his party will likewise soon abandon their radical and unpopular agenda — thus making Democrats more competitive in November. But this same expectation also existed 3 months ago, and clearly did not happen. While it is true that most undecided voters usually make up their minds about candidates only a few weeks before voting, a nationalized election (as 2022 is turning out to be, especially after continual bad economic news, i.e. inflation, high energy prices, unsettled stocks, supply chain woes) motivates turnout against a party in power much earlier — which we already see in various state caucuses and party conventions, including, for example, usually “blue” Minnesota, where Republicans are turning out heavily, and Democrats (DFLers) are not.
National GOP House strategists have now targeted more than 70 Democratic incumbents’ seats in 2022. Democrats have targeted a notably fewer number of Republican seats — and many of those might not turn out to be very competitive if there is little to motivate liberal voters to go the polls.
As the Virginia 2021 off-year elections demonstrated, a critical number of those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 will go into the booth and vote Republican to express their strong unhappiness with the Democratic leadership in Washington — and in their own state. If anything, that dissatisfaction is more intense today, and it is national in its dimensions, even appearing in traditionally strong blue states on both coasts.
Already, two usually “safe” Democratic U.S. Senate seats, in Vermont and Connecticut, are becoming competitive with potentially formidable GOP challengers. Another new factor is the growing number of GOP women, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians running for Congress this cycle.
The intensity and range of current U.S. voter dissatisfaction are the political factors in 2022 that the skeptical number crunchers are underestimating. Yes, if the Democrats dramatically shift course, and the economic news improves, the outcome of the midterms might only see modest gains for Republicans. But the elections are now on the political horizon, and fast approaching — and there’s no sign from the Democratic leadership in the nation’s capital that policy changes are forthcoming.
A GOP pick-up, then, of 40-75 U.S. House seats is not out of the question. This is not yet a prediction, but it could soon be one.
Dumbocrats have a proven win. They showed us how to get all the votes they needed in 2020. Piece of cake. No consequences.
Not to change the subject too much but can’t wait to see the liberals go insane when Elon Musk takes over Twitter!!!!!!!!! It will be fun to watch the meltdowns!!!!!!!!!
Even if the Democrats change their woke ways before November just to get elected how stupid do they think America is to fall for that BS? Americans are not stupid and will see right through that smoke screen. Let us pray!!!!!!! I pray for a complete shutout!!!!!
RED=REMOVE EVERY DEMOCRAT
I don’t know who in their right mind would vote for a Demoncrats
pk-love everyone’s optimism, my belief there will be some major disaster to forego elections for many years
IMHO: What you need to remember about elections in general is that every bloody one of the groups, republicans, democrats, pollsters, and the main stream media, are manipulators and they lie like rugs. They lie with big number expectations and small number expectations to make you believe they are winning or their opponents are losing, so you don’t need to vote. What you need to do is read reliable reports and news on the internet and maybe get your weather report from your local news, then, using your own common sense, make up your own mind about who and what you want the country to be, and go vote.
The principle thing is to not let the NWO or Great Reset toadies tell you how to vote and make your appearance at the poll and vote. Voting at the poll is important.
If the state governments are honest, and many are not, they will eliminate vote harvesting and mail- in ballots and return to absentee ballots that require strict in-person identification. To vote, a photo ID should be required, which is only common sense (most people have a drivers license with their photo on it). The only reason for not having proper photo identification is in order to cheat, and the progressive democrats and RINOs excel at cheating. Let’s get back to honest voting even if we have to return to paper ballots, honest poll watchers and all, since it is the vote counters that control the actual elections, not the actual voters. If your country is not important enough to entice you to vote honestly, maybe you should move to somewhere else.
Historically, the president’s party always loses seats in the mid-terms. Biden is probably going to lose ~60 House seats and ~4-6 Senate seats. There are a lot of people arguing against this reality, but it’s very likely going to happen. The country is headed in the wrong direction. I don’t need to recite what you already know. Biden has managed to completely screw up the country in the short space of a year. If people liked him, he could probably blunt half of the losses; however, people not only DON’T LIKE Biden. They are beginning to despise his obvious incompetence every time that they go to the gas pump, buy groceries, try to buy a house/car/etc. These problems will not go away by election day because Biden is pandering to the special interests that got him elected, and his party has completely lost touch with its own voters. So, Democrats will stay home, or cross lines to vote with Republicans and Independents. It’s going to be a rout of near-epic proportions.
dems are terrified of losing power. Right now, as we see it unfolding, get rid of biden and harris. Few of them would ever accept a black as president–and if you still believe obama is half black, you’re very mistaken. After pres Obama was born, Obama Sr. divorced Mrs. Obama for adultery with the wealthy communist Muhammad Subuh Sumohadiwidjojo a college professor in the madras O Sr attended in Indonesia. Harris may only have a very tiny amount of black African genes, but she’s also close to half American Indian (Taino), and nazis despise American Indians as mongrels and Jew lovers. who is left? Nasty Nancy the coyote lady of Kali. But, she’s terrified of Hillary who’s well known for the reach and depth of her spite.
While I would love to see a massive red wave in November, I do not really it happening.
The people that voted for Biden are getting what they voted for.
Exactly what they voted for.
I think they must be happy with the world that they wanted.
I would not be surprised to see some major event happen before November. Remember it is not just the DemocRat party against America as we know it, but the globalist cabal.
Desperate people do desperate things.
Two significant questions:
Who “tallies” the votes?
Are they all legitimate voters?
They are not democrats any longer. They are socialists and have no respect for the constitution or the republic.
Democrats have go
I am 70, voted both parties, but I have never seen so many people ever against one party like I see against the liberals/progressive’s democrat leadership now.
I have never seen such utter disdain the party leaders, and liberal media has for ANYONE, regardless of party, if you don’t agree with the, 100%.
Its ugly out here. Going to get uglier after the election too.
It will be a slam dunk RED (RATIONAL) Wave.
E.L.E. – Extinction Level Event. See also: Whig Party History.
First off, I do NOT trust our gubmint to actually give us a fair election. Having said that, the GOP had better give the USA a reason to vote for them besides “We are not THEM”. The Democrats used that excuse (“No more mean tweets!”) to usurp Trump, and look how that has turned out for the country. I won’t pretend to know who the GOP will nominate this next time (I figure about 97 people will run, Lord help us), but there are plenty of losers on the Right, too. It is too bad Trump could not keep his mouth shut, as he just kept on alienating voters he actually needed. I didn’t like his personality much, but I did like what he was trying to do for the USA. IMHO, he probably should not be the next nominee, but it will be a long time before we see another decent POTUS. And that is if we survive the one we have now. Yeah. I AM discouraged.
It’s like they don’t plan on giving up power no matter the electoral outcome.
It all boils down to the individual races. Could be Republicans make big gains in Democrat areas but barely come up short (like in New Jersey.) I think they’ll take both the House and Senate back this go around. Not sure by how much.
I honestly can not see a world where anyone could justify a blue vote. Democrat policy is front and center in today’s economics.
I challenge or blue friends to name one, just one, policy that has been economically successful. I don’t believe anything involved with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve should count.
assuming there is no fraud, then yes, probably a red wave.
Remember what Mark Twain said: “If voting mattered they wouldn’t let us…..”
Biden’s poll numbers are not going to rise because Biden isn’t capable of making them rise. Biden is not failing because of some unforeseen event out of his control. All Biden’s problems are the result of Biden’s policies and his lack of true political acumen. Biden is in over his head. He was never very bright and now he’s a subpar intellect experiencing dementia. Being president is the hardest job in the world and Biden couldn’t run a McDonalds. He’ll be at 40% or below in the polls come November if he’s lucky. It could be worse.
A core problem is that Congressional seats are allocated to a particular party by district gerrymandering. Public service ceased long ago to be the driver for public office; now it’s simply a career. Congress isn’t about to impose term limits on itself. It’ll require a Constitutional Convention. Currently it’s therefore quite difficult to unseat a party’s candidate.
Another real factor that is not even mentioned is the fraudulent election of 2020.
There are many people that believe that Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 was not legitimate.
They do not talk about it much, but will nevertheless make their feelings known this November.
I don’t see a pickup of 60+ seats as out of reach. Two districts in Ct. , the 5th and 2nd are ripe for picking up as Bidens economic and energy policies combined with the loathsome Democrat social agenda have the blue-collar voters in both those districts anxious and enthusiastic to vote. Both incumbents are progressive lap dogs and their victory margins are not impressive considering their lack of viable opposition to date. This scenario is played out in many districts across the country where the incumbent Democrat won by less than 5% points in 2020. Fortunately, the bulk of the targeted incumbents are unapologetic radical progressives of the AOC mold or the bourgeois Bolsheviks like Jim Himes who see flagellation as their road to salvation using the life savings of others. The disconnect in values between the D.C. glitterati and their media sycophants and the local communities’ is greater than ever. Biden has exceeded Obama’s caution about his ability to F— things up in his words and will be the GOP’s biggest ally going into November. The people who pay the bills are very angry at every level of government and there is no reason not to expect them to take out their anger on incumbents at local, state and national levels. Lacking a 3rd idiotic impeachment of Trump there is little to distract voters from the dismal state of our economy with inflation going out of control wiping out the value of savings of the retired. This election is the GOP’s to lose.
“Many observers also believe that President Biden’s current very low poll numbers will soon rise”
Based on what? The guy is barely intelligible these days and couldn’t fight his way out of a wet paper bag. Virginia was a harbinger of things to come and that’s a Democratic bloodbath, and deservedly so.
Democrats are stubborn about ending the era of fossil fuels and bringing in electric vehicles. Just viewed a documentary about Dubai in the Arab Emirates. Does anyone think that they will quietly and meekly see the end of what brings them that prosperity ? What about Ukraine ? Hitler made the biggest blunder of ww2 by attacking the Soviet Union and greatest mistakes of waging the war to capture the oil and other resources in the Ukraine, and now Putin, Aka “Putler” follows in his footsteps, again for the oil. Every trip by voters to the gas station and then the grocery store will seal the fate of the Democrats in 2022. Gas is 4,24 average was 4,39, will go to 10.00 after the bandaid impact of releasing ‘military’ strategic oil reserves is absorbed. Trump is returning in ’24.
Two polls tell most of the story. First, the Michigan Consumer Confidence survey is at 62.8; the mean is 91 since 1977, and it was over 100 while Trump was President. Second, a CNBC poll concluded that 81% of adults believe we will have a recession this year. In addition to those numbers, Republicans flipped 63 seats in the 2nd year of Obama’s first term. If Democrat cheating can be stopped, Republicans should gain at least 60 seats.
Keep in mind that none of the corruption and treasonous acts the Progressive/Socialists have committed, and are still capable of doing again, would never have been exposed if Donald Trump hadn’t been elected.
I would not count the Democrats; they are masters at stealing elections.
LET’S HOPE A REAL BIG RED WAVE! Let’s make Biden a lame (lamer) duck.
It won’t be a big red wave if America doesn’t get rid of Dominion , Smartmatic & other fraudulent – based “election” equipment , that votes by inputted software from the swamp ! Or it will be just like the last election for sure – just biden or another socialist / communist / career organized crime criminal the same as biden !
I think they will take the House, but I don’t think a wave is coming. Personally I’ve never been less motivated to vote. The Republicans had a miracle situation happen in 2016 and they completely blew it. That was a chance for a generational political re-alignment, and they threw it away with the same lukewarm, business-friendly policies that got us into this mess in the first place.
A Republican congress that will do nothing about the out-of-control crime, eroding middle class, busted social safety net, indoctrination in public schools, border chaos, insane immigration laws, and social media censorship just isn’t at all appealing to me. As much of a mess as the Dems are, I have no confidence the Republicans will do any better. I’ll either not be voting, or voting third party in November, and I suggest others do the same. It’s better to just let Dems blow the whole system up than to keep pretending everything is OK.
Alot has been revealed that I believe came as a result of DJT supposedly losing
Let’s hope it wasn’t in vain.
I just hope this “wave” is one of fiscal conservative, socially open-minded TRUE Republicans not the usual poseurs who call themselves one. I remember how suddenly everyone was “Tea Party” when it was fashionable to call yourself that until it meant nothing… so too I’m still wading through the candidates calling themselves “endorsed by Trump”! I want to vote for a FIGHTER not another Mitt Rino. They do NOTHING for me. But the nice thing in any case: they may do nothing for me, but unlike Democrats, they don’t usually do anything TO ME!
Vermont? Someone really thinks Vermont will elect a Republican senator?
What a hoot. The GOP will certainly lose to Fetterman in PA. After the midterms, Manchin and Sinema will no longer have any power because the Democrats will have more than 50 seats.
“Many observers also believe that President Biden’s current very low poll numbers will soon rise, and that he and his party will likewise soon abandon their radical and unpopular agenda”
I haven’t read anyone who has said that, let alone many. Historical data shows that President’s approval ratings almost never rise significantly after the spring of midterm years. It could well go lower for Biden if the situation on the border worsens significantly, as many expect it will…
Democrats killed our energy independence, tripled oil prices raising prices of everything, then dumped trillions in printed worthless funny money to pay off Dem billionaires & public employee unions giving us massive price increases in gas, food, Rents, homes, everything. Worse tripling oil prices funded PUTIN’s war in Ukraine. Biden/Dems paid for Putin to attack Ukraine. It’s their fault kids are being blown up. We also saw the total woke incompetence & unnecessary deaths of our soldiers in Afghan. Come Nov kick every lying incompetent pedo Dem to the gutter. All of them!
The idiot Republicans are only good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Stop with the “Red Wave” BS!! STFU and work diligently & quietly to effect victory at the polls. The morons never learn. How many Hillary voters in 2016 stayed home because there was so much banter about her being a shoo-in?
I am very skeptical. We are still 7 months out so the media has not gone into full-blown election disinformation yet. Also, 2020 taught us Stalin was right, “voters do not determine elections, vote counters do”.
Pray that God will intervene and flip this government on it’s face. Anyone that would vote for more of the same is in the evil camp with the socialist/democrats and does not deserve to be called an American.
I’m 73 and a similar situation existed here in rural Texas in the 70s and 80s. Growing up, there were 6 Republicans in our county of about 20,000 people. I recall their names. In the county’s entire history there’d never been a Republican officeholder. LBJ’s Great Society ran headlong into an outraged public. I don’t know any Democrats and we’ve had 100% Republican officeholders for more than 30 years. Biden’s war on energy, open borders, a steady drumbeat of sexism, racism and, finally questioning small children about their sexual preferences reminds me of those earlier times. Most all the decent people whom I know are pretty quiet. But, they’re very, very angry.
As gai boi pete told charlemagne yesterday
Those with dark skin should shut up and appreciate how diaper’s joe is fixing the infrastructure
Unless Biden can figure out how to draw out the Ukraine mess to his advantage, this economic and social climate will yield something NEVER seen before: the Democrats will lose 100+ seats in the House! People vote from their wallets, and the Left’s fascination with “green” energy is strangling American households nationwide!!
So are you dizzy or are you waking up to the fact that you’ve been played like a fiddle?
Round and round and round and round again (incessantly) goes the Constitutional Republic’s election merry-go-round, providing both species of Crocodiles (disguised as Donkeys and Elephants) their turn at the helm, to undo whatever was accomplished by the previous administration.
And, people, the only direction it travels is round and round and round and round again (incessantly). It never changes and yet, tragically, every two and four years Americans clamor for their alleged voting rights to elect another nincompoop, scoundrel, incompetent, immoral reprobate, or outright criminal to rule over them.
230-plus years of the Constitutional Republic’s elections has proven that regardless whether a Donkey or an Elephant gets elected, America has only advanced further down her suicidal trek to the precipice.
Time to get off the Constitutional Republic’s biblically egregious election carousel.
God has better plan!
The best the Constitutional Republic’s election system can ever produce is the lesser of two evils. Sometimes the worst of the worst, and always the evil of two lessers.
The Bible’s election system provides the best of the best of two or more biblically qualified candidates, every single time.
For more, see blog article “Constitutional Elections: Dining at the ‘Devil’s Table,'” at Bible versus Constitution dot org. Search title on our Blog.
For how the Bible’s election system operates, at the same location, see blog article “Salvation by Election.”
“If the economy improves….”
You mean if the unemployment rate goes lower than the lowest ever, and the economy creates even more jobs than the already stratospheric 400k jobs/month pace under Biden with impressive wage gains? I’m a 47 year old white guy in the crucial state of Michigan. I make well over 100k/year(yeah, yeah, I know big deal. When a DEM is POTUS EVERYBODY makes over 100k). Joe Biden was my 3rd to last choice(Trump was last; Bernie was 2nd to last). I voted for him knowing he would be possibly the worst POTUS ever. Why would all this slamming him discourage me from voting for DEMs(including “that woman”)?
After voting for the Pedophile-loving Ketanji Brown-Jackson, Masto-Cortez, Mr. Gabby Giffords and Maggie Hassan are finished. Hispanics are abandoning the Pedophile party in droves.
Dem strategists rail on about the GOP “Far Right”. And just what is the “Far Right”? Where is this so-called extremism on the conservative end of the spectrum? There is nothing on the right like a “Progressive” left, promising to destroy American institutions, if not its very history. There are no KKK members in Congress. There really aren’t any “white supremacists” in politics at all, at least not brazenly so. The ideology of the right is to have no ideology other than God (all denominations), family and apple pie. The US Constitution, upon which the country is built and defended, is the bible of the right. Not very radical. It is quite natural for American citizens to drift or run towards this common cause that binds us as a nation and sustains us. Unless Dems give up on their radicalism and return to centrism where policy can calmly be debated, they will become a smaller and smaller slice of American voters.
Not that I am being a nay sayer, I am not so sure we are going to pick-up enough seats in the Senate and or the House. The people that, for a lack of better words, rigged the last election have had, and will have plenty of time to look at the weak areas and what didn’t work. Yes, there was no wide spread voter fraud. We have 50 states and only 5 had the exceptional problems. See, no WIDE SPREAD FRAUD. Just 5 swing states. These people want control and are not wanting to lose their power. Just be aware, they won’t give up. America has the best Constitution and Bill of Rights in the World, we just have no one that can and will uphold our Laws and Rights.